A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Detection and identification of phytoplasma associated with witches’ broom and little leaf disease in Arundo donax: first report from India

During the survey of two successive years 2012–2013, in nearby places of Gorakhpur districts, Uttar Pradesh, India, Arundo donax plants were found to be exhibiting witches’ broom, excessive branching accompanied with little leaf symptoms with considerable disease incidence. Nested PCR carried out with universal primers pair R16F2n/R16R2 employing the PCR (P1/P7) product as a template DNA (1:20) resulted in expected size positive amplification ~1.2 kb in all symptom-bearing plants suggested the association of phytoplasma with witches’ broom disease of Narkat plants. BLASTn analysis of the 16S rRNA gene sequence showed the highest (99%) sequence identity with Candidatus phytoplasma asteris (16SrI group). In phylogenetic analysis, the sequence data showed close relationships with the members of 16SrI phytoplasma and clustered within a single clade of 16SrI group and closed to B subgroup representatives. This is a first report of 16Sr I-B group phytoplasma associated with witches’ broom accompanied with little leaf disease of Narkat in India.     

Rate transition and regulatory coupling in endocytosis of interferon-alpha and tumor necrosis factor-alpha in human epithelial tumor cells.

The time-dependent concentrations of interferon-alpha and tumor necrosis factor-alpha associated with the membrane and internalized by cells contain information on the kinetics of endocytosis and their cellular processing. This information can be reduced quantitatively by application of the respective compartmental models. In our studies of human epithelial tumor cells interacting with human interferon-alpha and human tumor necrosis factor-alpha, we accounted only for actual endocytosis and elimination of the tracer from cells by a novel method sensitive to changes in the rate of endocytosis, to the delay in tracer elimination, and to the nonlinear regulatory coupling between endocytosis and the internalized ligand. Data reduced by this method resulted in best-fit parameter values statistically superior to values obtained by previous methods (Bajzer et al., 1989). The results indicate a change with time in the rate of endocytosis of tumor necrosis factor-alpha and the inhibition of endocytosis by the endocytosed ligand-receptor complex. We conclude that sorting and processing of interferon-alpha and tumor necrosis factor-alpha are restricted by the type of both the receptor and the cell.     

Genetic and genomic resources of sorghum to connect genotype with phenotype in contrasting environments

With the recent development of genomic resources and high‐throughput phenotyping platforms, the 21st century is primed for major breakthroughs in the discovery, understanding and utilization of plant genetic variation. Significant advances in agriculture remain at the forefront to increase crop production and quality to satisfy the global food demand in a changing climate all while reducing the environmental impacts of the world's food production. Sorghum, a resilient C₄ grain and grass important for food and energy production, is being extensively dissected genetically and phenomically to help connect the relationship between genetic and phenotypic variation. Unlike genetically modified crops such as corn or soybean, sorghum improvement has relied heavily on public research; thus, many of the genetic resources serve a dual purpose for both academic and commercial pursuits. Genetic and genomic resources not only provide the foundation to identify and understand the genes underlying variation, but also serve as novel sources of genetic and phenotypic diversity in plant breeding programs. To better disseminate the collective information of this community, we discuss: (i) the genomic resources of sorghum that are at the disposal of the research community; (ii) the suite of sorghum traits as potential targets for increasing productivity in contrasting environments; and (iii) the prospective approaches and technologies that will help to dissect the genotype–phenotype relationship as well as those that will apply foundational knowledge for sorghum improvement.     

Phylogeography of Mus (Nannomys) minutoides (Rodentia,Muridae) in West Central African savannahs: singular vicariance in neighbouring populations

We studied the phylogeography of the strict savannah pygmy mice Mus (Nannomys) minutoides in West Central Africa. A total of 846 base pairs of the cytochrome b sequence were obtained for 66 individuals collected in Gabon, Cameroon, Republic of Congo and Central African Republic. These sequences were compared to those of M. minutoides from other African countries and to eight other species of the genus Mus. We performed maximum likelihood, Bayesian and nested clade analyses, as well as neutrality tests and time estimates. We show that M. minutoides is a well‐differentiated monophyletic species that separated from other pygmy mice 1.17 Myr ago. A distinct West Central African M. minutoides clade diverged early from the other African populations of the species, with a more recent common ancestor dating 0.14 Myr. West Central African populations are globally homogeneous, despite the present fragmentation of savannahs by the rain forest. However, our analyses show an unexpected vicariance between geographically close savannahs, embedded in the rain forest in Central Gabon. One of these populations is genetically more similar to very distant peripheral populations than to three closely neighbouring populations situated on both sides of the Ogooué River. A non‐river geographical barrier probably persisted in this area, durably isolating these local populations. This hypothesis about the history of the savannah landscape should be testable through the biogeographical analysis of other strict savannah small mammal species.     

嵌套式回归建立树木生物量模型

 该文介绍了一种建立树木生物量模型的简单快速方法——嵌套式回归。基本原理是以枝轴为基本单位, 逐级拟合。过程是把枝条分解成枝轴, 从枝轴到枝条, 再到单株, 拟合不同层次或尺度的生物量模型。建立枝轴生物量方程, 估计各级枝轴生物量, 将枝轴生物量(实测值或模拟值)总和起来便得到枝条生物量。由于样本单元之间有包含关系, 实际测定的样本很小, 具有快速实用的特点。检验结果显示, 模型预测值和实测值具有较高的一致性。     

Amphibian chytridiomycosis in Japan: distribution,haplotypes and possible route of entry into Japan

A serious disease of amphibians caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis was first found in Japan in December 2006 in imported pet frogs. This was the first report of chytridiomycosis in Asia. To assess the risk of pandemic chytridiomycosis to Japanese frogs, we surveyed the distribution of the fungus among captive and wild frog populations. We established a nested PCR assay that uses two pairs of PCR primers to amplify the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of a ribosomal RNA cassette to detect mild fungal infections from as little as 0.001 pg (1 fg) of B. dendrobatidis DNA. We collected swab samples from 265 amphibians sold at pet shops, 294 bred at institutes and 2103 collected at field sites from northern to southwestern Japan. We detected infections in native and exotic species, both in captivity and in the field. Sequencing of PCR products revealed 26 haplotypes of the B. dendrobatidis ITS region. Phylogenetic analysis showed that three of these haplotypes were specific to the Japanese giant salamander (Andrias japonicus) and appeared to have established a commensal relationship with this native amphibian. Many other haplotypes were carried by alien amphibians. The highest genetic diversity of B. dendrobatidis was found in the American bullfrog (Rana catesbeiana). Some strains of B. dendrobatidis appeared to be endemic to Japanese native amphibians, but many alien strains are being introduced into Japan via imported amphibians. To improve chytridiomycosis risk management, we must consider the risk of B. dendrobatidis changing hosts as a result of anthropogenic disturbance of the host‐specific distribution of the fungus.